Golfe Arabo-Persique : l’après-pétrole reconfigure l’équilibre régionalStéphan SILVESTRE
The partial disengagement of the United States from the Persian Gulf resulting from the decrease in its energy dependence seems to have left Russia with a political and strategic space. But this new deal masks a much more fundamental evolution of the geopolitical balance model in the Middle East. Several new economic and geopolitical factors have changed the alliances and strategies of regional actors in the context of Shia-Sunni disputes. The Iranian threat of blocking the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the US sanctions policy would have a major impact on Asian economies but would not serve Tehran's interests. In this context, this crisis could evolve towards a new regional balance based on the post-oil economy.